Nobody outside Take-Two knows how GTA 6 is selling, but every analyst who has published a forecast expects the biggest launch in entertainment. Estimates run from 25 million copies on day one to about 51 million by the end of launch week. Below: what the analysts expect, what the big GTA creators are watching for, and how the most common fan wishes stack up against what Rockstar has confirmed.
What the analysts expect
| Who | Forecast | Covers | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|
| DFC Intelligence (David Cole) | 25 million copies, mostly pre-orders | Day one | GamesRadar+, June 2026 |
| Kantan Games (Serkan Toto) | About 30 million, which he thinks is possible | Day one | GamesRadar+, June 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | About 46 million | Day one | GamesRadar+, June 2026 |
| Joost van Dreunen (NYU Stern) | 38 million copies, just over $3 billion | First 12 months | GamesRadar+, June 2026 |
| DFC Intelligence | Over $3.2 billion revenue, double GTA 5’s first year | First year | GamesRadar+ |
| Newzoo | $3.3 to $5.2 billion; about 51 million copies at the midpoint | By the end of launch week | VGC and GamesRadar+, July 2026 |
The range is wide because the methods are. Piper Sandler’s day one figure, GamesRadar explains, scales up weekly visitors to the GTA 6 subreddit using multipliers from past launches. Newzoo started from about $180 million in first week digital pre-orders across the US and Europe’s five biggest markets, then fitted that to the sales curve of a proven sequel.
For scale: GTA 5 sold 11 million copies on its first day in 2013, according to DFC, and Take-Two now counts more than 230 million sold in.
The doubters
Not everyone thinks GTA 6 will match GTA 5 in the long run. DFC’s Cole told GamesRadar it may be hard to beat GTA 5’s longevity, and that GTA 6 should be stronger at the start but faces an open question over its lifespan. Van Dreunen expects long term sales to fall short of GTA 5, because the market will not triple again as it did after 2013. He still expects higher spending per player.
Newzoo also dismissed social media claims that GTA 6 had already made billions from pre-orders. Take-Two has not published a single sales figure, and its CEO Strauss Zelnick said the pre-orders are so unprecedented that the company does not know how they will translate into sales.
The Ultimate Edition surprise
Sensor Tower’s Karl Kontus said 89% of GTA 6 pre-orders are for the $99.99 Ultimate Edition, as TechRadar reported in August. Typical premium shares are 10 to 20%, and he had never seen a premium share near 90%. He expects the share to fall as casual players buy in nearer launch. Compare the two in our editions guide.
What the creators are watching for
The biggest GTA channels have spent October on a few themes. These are their own videos, embedded below with credit, and their views are theirs, not confirmed facts.
| Creator | Video | The question |
|---|---|---|
| TGG | Inside the Development of GTA 6 | A talk with Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier about his making of feature and both of their Rockstar North visits |
| TGG | Could GTA 6 Take Us Back to Liberty City? | His theory on whether the story leaves Leonida |
| TGG | Will GTA 6 Have Rockstar Editor? | Whether GTA 6 gets a video editor, based on what he saw |
| MrBossFTW | How huge the GTA 6 map is going to be | A fan made map compared with Los Santos and Red Dead 2’s world |
| GameSpot | GTA 6 and Gasoline in Video Games | What fuel in GTA 6 might mean, looking at other games that use it |
TGG is one of the few creators Rockstar has hosted. Kotaku and VGC reported the map figures Rob Nelson gave him at Rockstar North in August: about twice GTA 5’s map and three times Red Dead 2’s. Find more channels in our creators directory.
What fans want, and what is already confirmed
We took the wish lists from TechRadar, GamesRadar+ and PC Gamer and checked each against what Rockstar has shown.
| Wish | Who asked | Status |
|---|---|---|
| A long story | TechRadar | Yes. Rockstar’s Rob Nelson needed 80 hours |
| A strong female lead | PC Gamer | Yes. Lucia Caminos is one of two leads |
| NPCs that react like real people | PC Gamer, GamesRadar+ | Yes. Over 600,000 animations, made by hand |
| Everyday, non-violent activities | PC Gamer, TechRadar | Yes. Fishing, hunting, mini golf, a gym and more (activities) |
| A killer soundtrack | GamesRadar+ | Yes. Radio stations and a 34 track album |
| More interiors | TechRadar | Unknown. Rockstar has not said how many |
| A better GTA Online | PC Gamer, GamesRadar+ | Not yet. No online mode announced (what we know) |
| Official mod support | PC Gamer | No. No PC version announced |
| Travel to other maps | GamesRadar+ | Not confirmed. Only creator theories so far |
| No more flying futuristic vehicles | TechRadar | Unknown until launch |
Nelson told The New York Times, via TechRadar, that he hopes players will get up, have a coffee, shower and go out for some exercise in Leonida, then “maybe get into some trouble”. That answers the everyday life wish better than any list could.
When we will know more
- Reviews: when the embargo lifts (what we know).
- Sales: Take-Two’s next results are on November 9, ten days before launch (earnings).
- Online, PC, unlock time: not announced. We update the release time page as soon as Rockstar does.
Related pages
- GTA 6 vs GTA 5 vs Red Dead Redemption 2 vs Modern Warfare 4
- Take-Two earnings and GTA sales
- Every confirmed GTA 6 feature
